在JFay blog看到的一些update.

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正在邊寫論文邊聽今天下午比賽的廣播，目前七局上，2-0 Reds。有希望把一個慘不忍睹的西岸之行變成一個可以接受的500西岸之旅。

整理一下剛讀到一些消息轉換一下寫論文的心情。

看來目前Reds有意轉換Aroldis Chapman到牛棚的角色，今天在AAA將是第一場Chapman的非先發出賽。
週日的Leake輪值將會被跳過，總算Reds開始要保存Leake的戰力了，外加可以讓Arroyo保持在他正常五日輪值內，不過Leake在本季終將會burn out。不是Dusty的錯，是他還沒有投兩百局的手臂。為了長遠之計，他今年的局數應該是會被設定在150局。誰在九月接替他的輪值。It might be the Edison Volquez，but 我有我的存疑。也許會有些交易，希望是Real Ace level like Cliff Lee。

我同意Fay對Hanigan的看法，若是農場打幾場確定手傷無礙，打擊Okay。就應該趕快歸隊了。Miller is a good veteran。but his hitting sucks。

有可能看到Volquez在明星賽前，若是真的發生，看來投手輪值會有些調動。wait and see。

btw, when will Bill Bray be called up? Herrena is done。一個超慢速球投手，他似乎已經被打者摸清了。He is awful。

目前八局上，still 2-0。難道又要在九局上派CoCo 上場？fingers crossed。

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以下是John Fay的本文
My take on today’s developments:

–I like the idea of looking at Aroldis Chapman as a reliever. With Edison Volquez coming back, there’s no immediate need in the rotation.

A long like of good starters began in the bullpen – Roy Oswalt, Adam Wainwright, Nolan Ryan, Don Gullett – it may help Chapman’s development.

And adding a lefty who throws 100 mph will help this bullpen.

–Skipping Mike Leake makes perfect sense. It keeps Bronson Arroyo on his turn. Arroyo’s rolling.

But the Reds are going to have to keep skipping Leake on occasion. If he throws six innings in his next start, he’ll still be on a 197-inning pace for the season.

–I’m surprised Ryan Hanigan is going to be on rehab for a week to 10 days. I was thinking more in terms of two or three days. I’m sure if he hits well the reds will amend that.

–I get no real feel if Edinson Volquez will pitch for the Reds before or after the All-Star Break. I think it depends on his next two rehab starts. As always in the these situations, you want to err on the side of caution.

The Wire to Wire Reds, the story of 1990 Reds team.

（從Lance部落格上抓下來的圖）

關於Reds歷史的新書將要上市，The Wire to Wire Reds.

作者之一，John Erardi今天晚上上Lance McAlister的秀。作新書宣傳的專訪。

非常好的專訪，並有接受一些聽眾的call-ins。

有興趣連結到此處聽這段專訪，

Download

This weekend's matchup.

昨天寫的時候、沒有注意到Cards and Astros下午還有一場比賽。Astros swept Cards。而在週間Reds swept Pirates。一來一往之下，Reds跟Cards僅差0.5場勝差。週末系列戰下來，將會決定國聯中區的排序。

在這邊quote Mo Egger所寫的
Huge series? No.
Season defining series? Ask me in September.
Critical? Nope. Important? Maybe.
Fun weekend of baseball in mid-May between the top two teams in the division? Absolutely. No division will be clinched this weekend.

No champagne will be poured. No one will be eliminated this weekend. But given the lack of series like this in this city the last ten years, you are completely within your rights to go a little overboard this weekend.
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即便Reds拿下兩場或是橫掃Cards。理性球迷還是會心理毛毛的，:) 有多少次Reds在六月底七月初一趟西岸之旅瞬間崩盤，讓GM連出手交易的機會都沒有，瞬間由買家變賣家。Shinjyo昨日整理了一篇很好的文章，Cards come to town again有空點選看一下，這是七月底Reds要檢討的事情。我認為最重要的兩個交易必須發生，以帶領Reds進入10月的比賽，找到一個真正的第一棒，跟一個真正的第四棒(右打)。其他的事列為次要。而Reds農場is loaded。特別是在投手部份。交易應該不會太難。

另外一個先發投手，很多球迷認為若是七月中Reds正在角逐國聯中區的寶座，Harang or Arroyo還表現搶手的話，應該要交易一個調整球隊薪資負荷。我則是認為哪兩位會被交易只有在Reds退出競逐才有可能發生。你不觸碰一個winning team。你只作補強，不把強投拿去交易。特別是Harang and Arroyo已經是被證明是200+ innings投手。而Mike Leake沒人可以保證在下半季的狀況，理由一：下半季已經跟對手交手一輪了，球探報告也開始出爐了。理由二: Leake從未經歷過162長球季的考驗，沒人知道他的手臂能否維持整個球季。

另外跟這篇文章標題相關：從Lance的部落格拿來用的週末先發match-up
The matchups
Tonight: Jaime Garcia (3-2, 1.18) vs. Aaron Harang (2-4, 6.02)
Saturday: Adam Wainwright (5-1, 2.08) vs. Mike Leake (3-0, 3.10)
Sunday.: Brad Penny (3-3, 1.70) vs. Bronson Arroyo (2-2, 5.36)
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若只從數字來看，Reds應該要輸掉這個系列戰，他門的投手防禦率是近乎奇蹟的低。所以若是Reds能拿下兩勝，我將會非常的高興。

Have you jump on the bandwagon? I haven't.

在Arroyo-Cueto-Bailey三人橫掃Pirates，特別是後面的兩個今年表現很不穩的veteran young pitchers。連兩場投出個人完封，complete-game shutout的表現。大家都很興奮，Lance昨天在廣播中興奮的說bandwagon 將要啟動，還沒上車的人趕快上車。

很不幸的，經歷這麼多年的follow Reds，我學到一些教訓，我還沒有跳上那個即將啟程的列車，因為那輛車已經在之前拋錨太多次了。我知道今年的球隊很可能會不一樣，但是還是別把希望押下。抱持謹慎樂觀的態度比較好，不過因為最近的好表現，明天將會去球場加油助陣就是了。

而我卻不是少數的人有這樣的想法，若是資深且理性的球迷，應該跟我差不多。以下我quote一些部落格看到的文章

首先是Redleg Nation Chad Dotson的 "The Reds Stinks"的文章
The Reds stink. They’re just awful. They can’t hit, they can’t pitch, they can’t field, and they make more mental errors than a graduate of Virginia Polytechnic Institute.

The recent win streak is a fluke and I can’t stand to be a fan of this team anymore. The Reds make me sick to my stomach.

*Yes, this is a blatant attempt to create a reverse jinx. The last time I got excited about this team, they promptly went on a losing skid.

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再來就是P-Doc的TML5/13的一段：

Feeling good about your ballclub after it beats Pittsburgh is like feeling good about your army after it beats Switzerland.
You say: The starting pitching is really coming together.

I say: The 2010 Pirates are one of the worst teams of the last 30 years, not including expansion clubs. OK, including expansion clubs. If Pittsburgh doesn’t go about 57-105, it’s because they get to play the Astros 15 times. And yes, I know the Astros whipped the Cardinals the last two nights.

You say: Bailey and Cueto threw strikes, worked efficiently, looked like mature, big-time starters.

I say: See above.

You say: The hitters are good enough, often enough with RISP, the pitching will continue to carry them.

I say: See above.

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而這個Civil Right Weekend Series 對上Cardinals將會是能否向我們這些還在Bandwagon旁等待的球迷展現的機會，若是Reds能拿下兩勝(fingers crossed)，這周結束時，將會至少並列分區第一的位置。Reds，請向我們證明this is the year.

嘴砲王 Brandon Phillips

昨天晚上Brandon Phillips舊疾復發，在三局下的時候，他打了一支看起來要飛越全壘打牆的二壘安打。他以為他要繼一局下半的全壘打後再度打出全壘打。結果就在那邊跑邊看球的飛行。跑到一半後才開始加速。結果不是全壘打。球擊中全壘打牆。不但如此，反彈後還彈離Mets外野手們的身邊。結果最後形成了一個二壘安打，若是他在一開始就盡全力跑，可以跑出一支三壘安打。以結果論，可以造成一個Reds的得分。因為Votto隨後左外野的深遠安打。可以輕易的護送三壘跑者回本壘。

這會讓我意外嗎？其實不會，Phillips在短短的一個月已經第二次犯這種錯誤了。前面幾年也是時常發生。他每次都是說他很抱歉，以後不會再發生了。過沒多久就會發生了。

然後有事沒事就會對媒體上說他想要當Leader，當隊長，帶領全隊。整天放嘴砲。我都有點厭煩了，然後一直在球場上發生弔啷鐺的事。還好現在有個Scott Rolen在。Phillips大概也不太敢說自己是team leader了。不然真的是自取其辱。

不過球場上的事不說，球場外他真的是Reds最佳的親善大使就是了。

我對Edinson Volquez 50 天suspension的看法.

Volquez被檢測出有聯盟所禁的performance drug，被MLB罰50天的球禁，50天不能領薪水。That's it。
Reds一點損傷都沒有。反正Volquez本來就在Arizona 復健中，最快也要到七月才能復出。期間Volquez還是可以在球團的指導下，按照他的正常復健進度復健。唯一受到商害得是Volquez的口袋。

首先，我部份相信Volquez的藉口，說是要嘗試生小孩的原因誤食。但是僅是部份，你若是MLB球員，球團有超級好的醫療團隊跟顧問。這種是不該發生在已經是MLB roster的球員。anyway, it's his fault。The good thing is Reds is not punished by this, they even benefit from this by not paying Volquez for 50 days. This is a fu&king joke。只能讓人看出MLB的鴕鳥心態。讓一個球員還在傷兵名單的時候就開始50天的禁賽。既然是傷兵，哪來的禁賽。期間還是可以在球團的監督下繼續復健。另外一個職業運動,美式足球, NFL,在球員禁賽期間，可是不能靠近任何球團的人員跟裝備。連球團健身房都不能去。現在看看MLB對Volquez的禁賽。what suspension. It's like no punishment at all. so, MLB made a fool of itself.

funny stuff, from Yahoo Sports MLB Power Rankings.

14. Cincinnati Reds (5-4; Previous: 20) – Danny Herrera wants to know why every time Dusty Baker says the bullpen is “a little short,” everybody looks at him.

He is 5'6". I think He is the shortest player in the Major League.

And one of my colleagues is about 5'. He said the Reds once offered him a minor league contract, when he went to tryout in FL. He thought the salary was too low. Then, he turned down the deal. I think he bullshit about this. None of us believed that.

Reds three consecutive wins was stopped last night.

1. 昨天晚上，Reds 3-5 lost to Marlins。三連勝被終止了。
2. 首先，Homer Bailey投5 1/3局。五分自責分。用球數115球，表現很糟。本季兩次先發都是五局就用球數破百。用球超沒效率。蠻多人提及他在watching list上。我是覺得沒那麼嚴重。因為Cueto也是如此,Homer Bailey會被大家釘上應該是因為大家對他的刻板印象造成的。但是Cueto跟他都一樣。上季末表現超級神勇。本季開幕,給人落差感太大。
3. 不過先發投手不穩狀況給牛棚造成的負擔太大,這個現象必須要改善,不然就像專欄記者所指出,到明星賽前,牛棚就要垮了。
4. 昨天牛棚表現還不錯,Herrera 解決一個滿壘的危機。而Mike Lincoln也是兩局,無安打無失分。把牛棚因為延長賽而消耗的戰力給補血了。而且也給我對Lincoln的信心稍微補血一下。
5. 打線還是積弱不振。五支安打, Paul Janish佔兩支。好幾個人開始大叫說應該讓Janish先發, Cabrera去做板凳。我會說wait a minute。我對數字的哲學是, numbers will even out in a long haul。別太急, Janish的數字久了就會回歸正常值, which is not so good, career .209打者。我當然希望他的打擊一直火熱,但是看久棒球了。棒球的統計數字會那麼重要不是沒有道理的。為何這個城市的球迷老是在那邊放事後的馬後砲。
6. 就像Drew Stubbs狂被三振一把。12個三振排行第一。就說要讓Dickerson上來,但是回頭一看,Votto也是11次三振追隨在後。But Stubbs is injured now。So, it doesn't matter anymore。Stubbs因為背傷現在在坐板凳。Dickerson就先頂中外野手。若是他表現燙手,我不反對他坐穩先發中外野手位置。他要證明的是他能夠成為everyday player and play whole season。
7. 今晚的Harang 先發。Harang也是定期被球迷拿來造三餐責怪的。Really?? Is he that bad? NO, he is not。He is still a good pitcher。and his two starts this season was not bad, the second one was good。But, did fan know about that? maybe? 我只希望第一先發Harang能夠拿下今年Reds先發投手的首勝。

Reds won the second extra inning game this season.

It's a great win. The Reds has a 5-3 record now.

I know it's great to get this kind of win. But, it's been too much.

Owings got his second "W". Meanwhile, the starting five haven't won any game yet. Let's hope Homer can get a W. Not only a W. He better pitches efficiently.

The bullpen needs to rest, and CoCo Cordero needs a day off. So, let's hope the hitting will be hot as well.

Cincinnati.Com | Cincinnati Enquirer | Chick Ludwig » Reds in over their heads

Cincinnati.Com | Cincinnati Enquirer | Chick Ludwig » Reds in over their heads

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Ludwig是這邊Pro Football的專欄部落格寫手、但是他也忍不住評論一下Reds、我覺得他講的很有道理。為何昨天要把一個Rookie派上去面對紅鳥的中心打線。看了真的很氣人。而結果就是七局上、紅鳥得四分、把剛追平的比數給浪費了、而且一舉讓出四分。It's kind of mission impossible for the Reds to get it back。Reds offense sucks。

今年現場看球經驗、Reds 0勝2敗。看來我該停止去看球一陣子了。