Reds update with Big Hawaii, 05/15/09

昨日休兵日，本想說updates暫停一天，早上看報紙，看到P. Doc的5/15 morning line。貼上來分享一下。以下英文為P. Doc原文。我隨興的翻譯，並未完全忠於原文。

What do you expect from our baseball Men? They handled the D-backs like they were schoolkids, they play tonight in San Diego, where the Padres are equally lame. The Reds are 20-14. What do you think will be better over the balance of the season? What will be worse? What will level off? The best thing about hardball is the length of the year. Across so many games, a team generally will finish with the face it deserves. Arthur Rhodes will not have John Blutarski's GPA as his ERA by September, but probably EE will not be hitting 1-something, either.

你對我們球隊有什麼看法？Reds造預期的打敗DBacks（其實熟知歷史的，知道這不簡單，Reds面對弱隊常常打不好）Reds今晚將開始Padres三連戰，Padres跟D-Backs一樣的處在低潮。Reds現在是20勝14敗。你覺得到季末時什麼會比現在好，什麼會比現在糟，什麼會持平。棒球最好的一點就是有個162場比賽的長球季。在這漫長的球季，球隊最後的成績將會反映真實(經過這些年來的follow，我再同意也不過了，我現在沒有隊戰績特別的興奮，僅是高興而已，因為很多事都會慢慢展現，尤其是Reds今年來說是個年輕的球隊，很多性質都還不確定)。Arthur Rhodes的ERA是不可能一直維持完美的0.00。而Edwin Encarcacion的打擊率也不會僅有一成多。

It's already starting to show. BP, not freed from hitting cleanup but overcoming in a manly fashion, is ripping up May after sleeping through April. So... what gets better/worse/levels off?

就像Brandon Phillips有個冷淡的四月，但是有個燙手的五月，事情會達成個平衡。

My picks: J. Votto stays strong, drives in 100, 25 bombs, average near .300, gets MVP votes.

P. Doc的個人看法：Joey Votto會有個亮眼的球季，100+ RBI，25+全壘打，將近三成打擊率。拿到國聯MVP的投票(注意他的用詞，票不等於得到，但是拿到票即是受到肯定)。

The pitching will ebb some. Hard to remember Cueto still learning, Volquez not consistent. And you wonder how the 39-year-old arms of Rhodes and Weathers will be come September, if used at their current rate. But if your 5th starter can give you 7 innings like the 7 Owings offered the other night, wow.

投手表現將會有些變化，到季末時，Johnny Cueto將會成熟，Volquez將會回穩。但是若是兩位39歲的牛棚Arthur Rhodes跟David Weathers繼續維持這樣的使用率，到九月時他們的手臂還會剩多少氣力。但是若是先發投手群能夠穩定的提供7局的表現，兩位老將的手臂將會得到他們的休息。

The defense, a little maligned now, will continue to be a key. The OF errors will lessen, as the team settles in (hopefully) with Nix in LF. As J. Fay notes in today's Enquirer, 5 of the 7 OF errors have been made by McDonald and Dickerson. Taveras has been very good in CF. Bruce, after a shaky start, has been solid in RF and leads the majors with 6 assists. They wanted to improve the D; they have, and it's played a part in the good start.

守備目前還是個問題。但是外野失誤將會變少，若是球隊左外野手角色落在 Nix身上。畢竟外野犯下的七次失誤，有五次是在McDonald and Dickerson身上。Taveras目前表現很好。Bruce已經變成一個優秀的右外野手，他現在有六次助殺紀錄，領先全聯盟。球隊今年想要改善守備，so far so good。守備也是目前球隊有個好的戰績的重要原因。

The hitting won't get much better. But if the Reds hit smart -- bunting, hitting behind runners, giving themselves up etc. -- it will be enough to keep them relevant into football season. When's the last time we could say that?

打擊並不會有巨幅的改善。但是Reds若是能成功執行打擊，觸擊，壘上有人時的安打，執行跑壘正確等等。球隊將會在八月底時還在競爭群之中，這將是近幾年最大的改善。

Worries: Shortstop, third base, aging relievers in September, staying power of Cueto and Volquez.

讓人擔心的地方：游擊跟三壘。以及年老的牛棚在九月的戰力。Cueto 跟 Volquez的穩定度。

No brainers: Votto's bat and leadership, Bruce's continued improvement, Hoss Harang, Taveras gobbling ground in CF.
讓人放心的地方：Votto的打擊跟帶領球隊的能力。Jay Bruce繼續成長。Harang的投球以及Taveras在中外野的守備。

 
I said in  January that this would be a fun, interesting team to watch. In March, I predicted 80-82 wins. I'm sticking with that. I hope I'm wrong. Your thoughts。

P. Doc在一月初預測這個球季將會是個值得投資精神去追蹤表現的一年。三月時，他預測將會是個接近.500勝率個球季。他仍認為是在這個範圍之內，但是他希望這個預測是錯的，希望球隊將會是個季後賽的突破年。